On Tuesday, President Bola Tinubu join Nigerians celebrate di 64th Independence Day anniversary — im second one since im enta office on May 29, 2023.
Di president make some claims as im dey read im Independence Day speech, im tok how di policies and reforms wey im oversee don comot results since im begin work.
TheCable check some of im claims, and na wetin we find be dis.
CLAIM ONE: Tinubu tok sey Nigeria attract foreign direct investments (FDI) wey pass $30 billion in 2023 sake of im economic policies.
“Di economy dey undergo di necessary reforms and retooling make e serve us better and more sustainably,” na so di president tok.
“If we no correct di fiscal misalignments wey lead to di current economic kasala, our kontri go face future wey no clear and di consequences of our actions.
“Thanks to di reforms, our kontri attract foreign direct investments wey pass $30 billion in di last year.”
FDI na foreign kompani or business wey investor establish for anoda kontri.
WETIN WE CHECK
On February 17, 2024, Doris Uzoka-Anite, minister of industry, trade and investment, tok sey di kontri receive about $30 billion in investment commitments from various investors.
Uzoka-Anite tok sey di commitments go bear fruit within five to eight years.
Also, di National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) dey usually release capital importation reports, wey dey include informate about di foreign direct investment inflows wey Nigeria dey attract evri quarter.
Di NBS capital importation report group capital inflows into three main types: foreign direct investment (FDI), foreign portfolio investment (FPI), and other investments.
According to informate from NBS, between Q2 — di time wey Tinubu begin work — and Q1 of 2024, Nigeria attract a total of $448.95 million in FDI.
In di same period, FPI — wey involve investments in financial assets like stocks and bonds — reach $2.58 billion.
Also, oda investments, like loans, trade credits, and oda capital inflows totaled $3.12 billion.
Further analysis by TheCable show sey in Q2 2023, Nigeria record $1.03 billion in foreign inflows, wey include FDI, portfolio investments, and oda investments.
Di figure drop to $654.65 million in Q3 2023 but rise go $1.09 billion in Q4.
Howeva, by Q1 2024, total capital inflow reach $3.38 billion.
In total, Nigeria attract $6.14 billion in foreign inflows between Q2 2023 and Q1 2024.
FINAL TOK
Based on informate from di NBS, di claim wey Tinubu make sey di kontri attract ova $30 billion for foreign direct investment in 2023 no correct.
According to di minister of industry, trade, and investment, wetin Nigeria bin get na just investment commitments, wey represent pledges or agreements to invest $30 billion within five to eight years, rather dan actual foreign direct investments.
CLAIM TWO: Tinubu tok sey im administration inherit foreign reserve of ova $33 billion and im don increase and maintain am at $37 billion.
“We inherit reserve of ova $33 billion 16 months ago. Since dat time, we don pay back di inherited forex backlog of $7 billion. We don clear di ways and means debt of ova N30 trillion,” he said.
“We don reduce di debt service ratio from 97 percent to 68 percent. Despite all these, we don manage keep our foreign reserve for $37 billion. We dey kontinue to meet all our obligations and pay our bills.”
WETIN WE CHECK
Di last informate wey di Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) release on May 26, 2023, three days before di president enta office, show sey di foreign reserves tanda at $35.14 billion— difference of $2.1 billion from wetin Tinubu claim.
Howeva, di latest figures from di CBN, as of September 27, 2024, show sey di foreign reserves rise to $38.05 billion.
FINAL TOK
While di foreign reserves don increased by 8.28 percent, di claim wey sey Tinubu administration inherit $33 billion in reserves no too correct. Di actual figure tanda at $35.14 billion wen im enta office.
CLAIM THREE: Tinubu tok sey im administration successfully clear di $7 billion foreign exchange backlog wey im inherit as im start work.
“Since dat time, we don pay back di inherited forex backlog of $7 billion,” na so di president tok.
VERIFICATION
FX backlog na di unmet foreign exchange (FX) demands or obligations wey don gada setey kontri neva fit pay.
On February 5, Olayemi Cardoso, CBN governor, tok sey im inherit $7 billion FX backlog wen im enta office in September 2023.
Di backlog show sey some outstanding requests from businesses, investors, or individuals for foreign currencies to arrange international transactions — like imports, debt payments, or foreign investments — bin dey wey di CBN bin no fit supply sake of FX shortage at dat time.
On September 26, 2023, di CBN governor announce sey di apex bank bin dey work on how dem go take settle di $7 billion FX backlog liabilities.
On March 20, 2024, Hakama Sidi Ali, director of corporate communications for CBN, tok sey di apex bank successfully settle all di valid outstanding FX obligations.
Two days afta, Kingsley Nwokeoma, president of di Association of Foreign Airlines and Representatives in Nigeria (AFARN), call for evidence of payment.
Nwokeoma tok sey make di apex bank provide proof of payment, as dem bin neva receive any moni.
Howeva, on June 2, 2024, di International Air Transport Association (IATA) tok sey 98 percent of trapped airlines’ funds for Nigeria bin dey cleared.
FINAL TOK
Based on di official statement from di CBN wey dey responsible for FX payments, and do IATA, representing foreign airlines, di president claim get head
CLAIM FOUR: Tinubu tok sey im administration don clear di ways and means debt of ova N30 trillion.
“We don clear di ways and means debt of ova N30 trillion,” na so di president tok.
WETIN WE CHECK
Ways and means advances na facility wey di CBN provided to di federal government wey go allow dem borrow moni from di apex bank make dem cover short-term funding needs.
Essentially, e dey help di govment manage dia finances wen shortage dey revenue.
On May 23, 2023, di senate approve di securitisation of N22.7 trillion ways and means loans, afta former President Muhammadu Buhari make di request on December 28, 2022, to convert di debt to government bond.
Securitisation na di process of turning assets into interest-bearing securities wey dem go fit sell give investors.
Also, on December 30, 2023, di national assembly approv Tinubu request for the securitisation of outstanding N7.3 trillion ways and means debt.
While di Debt Management Office (DMO) neva release di document for di securitisation of di N7.3 trillion loan, di details of di N22.7 trillion loan wey dem securitise during Buhari administration show sey di tenure na 40 years, meaning sey dem suppose pay di principal and interests within 40 years.
Additionally, di principal get 3-year moratorium, which mean sey for di first three years, di borrower no suppose make any payments towards di principal amount of di loan.
Di document also tok sey e get interest rate of 9 percent per annum, which mean sey evri year, di federal government go pay 9 percent of di remaining loan balance as interest.
FINAL TOK
Tinubu claim wey tok sey im administration don clear di N30 trillion ways and means no correct, as di DMO document show sey di loan don dey securitised with payment within 40 years, not full payment as Tinubu tok.
Informate from di editor: We don edit di final tok for claim two make e show sey e no too correct afta we check am again inside house.
