A viral post claims, based on International Monetary Fund (IMF) projections, that Nigeria ranks fourth among the world’s fastest-growing economies in 2025.
The post — “Fastest Growing Economies in 2025” — ranks countries by projected GDP growth and places Nigeria in joint third (alongside Saudi Arabia) at 3.0 percent. India tops the list with 6.2 percent, followed by China with 4.0 percent.
The post attributes the data to the IMF and features images of world leaders, reinforcing the impression of a definitive global ranking.
The post has been widely shared across social media platforms. It can be seen here, here, and here.
VERIFICATION
The IMF’s World Economic Outlook (April 2025) projects that Nigeria’s GDP will grow 3.0 percent in 2025.
However, a review of the full IMF dataset shows that Nigeria is not the world’s fourth fastest-growing economy, as the post suggests.
Several countries, including Libya (17.3%), Senegal (8.4%), Rwanda (7.1%), Tajikistan (6.7%), and Niger (6.6%), are projected to grow at significantly higher rates.
The countries listed in the IMF data are absent from the infographic.
Furthermore, the IMF does not rank countries globally by growth in its official publications. Instead, it classifies economies into three broad groups: advanced economies, emerging markets, developing economies, and low-income developing countries.
IMF Growth Projections: 2025
🇺🇸US: 1.8%
🇩🇪 Germany: 0.0%
🇫🇷France: 0.6%
🇮🇹Italy: 0.4%
🇪🇸Spain: 2.5%
🇬🇧UK: 1.1%
🇯🇵Japan: 0.6%
🇨🇦Canada: 1.4%
🇨🇳China: 4.0%
🇮🇳India: 6.2%
🇷🇺Russia: 1.5%
🇲🇽Mexico: -0.3%
🇸🇦KSA: 3.0%
🇳🇬 Nigeria: 3.0%
🇿🇦RSA: 1.0% pic.twitter.com/LzX730aUw6
— IMF (@IMFNews) April 22, 2025
This grouping is based on structural economic differences. In economics, comparing the growth rate of developed countries (like the US, UK, Japan) with that of developing countries (like Nigeria) is inappropriate.
Developed countries are typically in a steady-state growth phase, operating near their production possibility frontier.
Their growth rates are naturally lower, usually between 1 and 2 percent. Developing economies have more room to grow and often post higher rates due to ongoing structural transformation and catch-up growth.
The viral infographic presents a misleading view of Nigeria’s growth position by ignoring these distinctions and merging countries from different development levels into one global league table.
VERDICT
While the IMF projects that Nigeria’s economy will grow by 3.0 percent in 2025, the claim that it is the fourth fastest-growing economy in the world is misleading.
The claim is based on a selective reading of IMF data and omits several countries, particularly in Africa and Asia, that are projected to grow faster.
The claim also disregards standard economic classifications, discouraging direct comparisons between advanced and developing economies.
